Tuesday, 13 May 2014
"Tribal" attitudes to human fertility need to change.
This picture is symbolic of my subject here, but it might strike a familiar note with those of us who have been in the centres of major world cities, jostling our way slowly through crowds. An ominous feature of this drawing is the banners. Crowdedness will lead to formation of rival "tribes" of gangs, fighting for space.
Predicted rise in population from year 2000 is from 8 to 9 billion by the half-century. We are told that the exponential rise in population will level off. Will it? True, population replacement is falling in some developed countries and the rise is less steep in the so-called third world. I do not think this is going to be long-term effective against the strength-gathering factors that will keep population numbers rising.
1. Even spread of simple medical procedures has changed death-rates and modern medicine will continue to keep people alive longer, with fewer babies dying.
2. Large families are still common, and even encouraged by many world cultures and religions.
3. The "export" of children from poorer large families to countries where the pop. is static or falling will increase at an accelerated pace.
4. There is a limit on how far technologies, expansion into wilderness (with growing ill effects), and demands for satisfaction of the needs and cravings of the "civilized" human species, can go in solving basic problems.
5. Already environmental degradations, depletions and pollution have pushed us well beyond the limits of sustainability. A new "crunch-time" is beginning to emerge that will cause poverty to keep spiralling upwards and with it population growth will pick up and continue to grow toward global civilization's collapse.
The Syai world of my "utopian" vision gives some pointers to how the Malthusian catastrophe might be avoided. Even the Syai emperor and empress would never dream of having more that three offspring!
A limit of three is imposed democratically and universally. Some adults have duties toward children (and enjoy them!) but have none of their own, preferring the freedom of work and recreation without children. A "village" culture prevails in which adults work in "towns" and enjoy entertainment or sport that only "towns" can offer, but keep an anchorage in the "village" countryside in support of its "extended family". Of course I have written al lot more detail about this in writings I hope eventually to be able to offer to those interested.